Numbers analysts at the Norwegian Computing Center confirm what they already knew: There will be a rat race in the final battle of the Elite Series this season.
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– 50/50, we accept it. The two points above give them a mathematical advantage, but if you look at the last four or five games, we are the ones who have taken the most points, says Brann Fredrik Pallesen’s stopper to VG.
At VG’s request, the Norwegian Computing Center has calculated the remaining matches 50,000 times on a computer and has calculated 50,000 corresponding tables.
It appears Brann has a 53.4 percent chance of direct relegation, while there is a 63.9 percent chance that they will be relegated either by direct relegation or qualification.
– I let the statistics speak for themselves, then I have faith in my teammates and in the way we are. We must focus on performance and deliver good results on the training ground. Then we’ll pick points throughout the fall, says Pallesen.
The statistics do not address the current form of the teams. In the last five games, Brann has had seven points. There are as many as the runners-up in the Molde series.
It’s worse for Stabæk, Mjøndalen and Tromsø, who are left with at least four games in a row without a win. Mjøndalen has not won since a 3-0 win against Mjøndalen on July 10.
– It seems that, for once, the Norwegian Computing Center works quite well, says Christian Gauseth.
– We have won two of 19 games. To say that it looks bright, it does not. But this is what our foundation has been: everything has been at stake in the last game three years in a row. And everything went well. There’s a reason for that. So if we can push those forces, then everything will be fine, continue.
At Nadderud, there is only one thing that applies now.
– The chances are very good for us. We depend on each other and are very lucky considering the few points we have won, says Stabæk sporting director Torgeir Bjarmann, but he thinks the team will be much better.
– They will probably have to recalculate, because we will manage, says Bjarmann with a smile.
Stabæk stopper Simen Wangberg believes the number crushers will hit the odds.
– It really means a lot. There are four teams and we will meet two of them. There will be very important matches. It’s absolutely possible to stay, statistics don’t mean much, says teammate Fredrik Haugen.
– It’s about taking points against those around you. We have to mobilize so that there are bonus games for those that are basically tough, says Wangberg, who expects an offense in the group of players.
However, this week they gave a new explosion in the glass:
They have both experienced relegation battles before and they know what is going on. In 2014, the Bergen native Haugen was relegated to the OBOS league with Brann.
– Fire is a bit in the same situation. The pressure is probably a bit higher there than here, but we have at least the same desire to stay, says Haugen.
Fredrik Pallesen does not hide the fact that there is an extra “push” in Bergen.
– My experience is that it’s pretty bad. Bergen fans are extremely concerned that Brann will remain in the Elite Series. It’s great with commitment, but when you play for Brann it’s almost like you have to think about other things and what you can do, says Pallesen, adding:
– I have not felt any great dissatisfaction, there is more support from the fans. You get a lot of “you can do this” comments.