The growth of the continental economy is increasing a little more than expected in August, thanks to good fishing for mackerel.
In August, the continental economy shows a growth of 1.1 percent, shows figures from Statistics Norway.
By comparison, there was a 0.4% growth in July and 1.4% in the second quarter. Then the economy returned to the same level as before the corona pandemic.
In advance, 0.9 percent growth was expected in the continental economy, according to Bloomberg.
The increase is mainly due to an unusually good mackerel fishery, writes Statistics Norway. If fishing and capture are excluded, growth was somewhat weaker, almost 0.4 percent.
– If we ignore the fisheries, the recovery continued after the pandemic and August was the fifth month in a row with an increase in GDP in mainland Norway. However, the summer months are characterized by strong seasonal variation and therefore the figures should be interpreted with caution, says Pål Sletten, section manager at Statistics Norway.
Total GDP, including oil and gas activities, grew 2.0% in August, compared to 0.8% in July.
Growth after the abolition of travel restrictions
Overall, there was growth of 1.7 percent in the production of goods and 1.4 percent in service industries.
Among service industries, business services contributed the most, mainly due to abnormally low levels of travel agency and tour operator activities in the previous month, as travel restrictions continued to affect industry to a greater extent.
The gross product of industry and mining fell 0.7 percent in August. The wood and wood products industry had the largest negative contribution, but almost all industries experienced a moderate decline in August, except the food industry, which was driven by fish processing.
Even lower private consumption
Despite household consumption rising for the fifth month in a row with 0.6 percent growth in August, consumption is still 1.3 percent lower than before the pandemic occurred.
Consumption of services increased 3.4 percent in August. Leisure services, as well as hotel and restaurant services, contributed the most to growth, and these groups were also the hardest hit by the pandemic.
Although the consumption of services has increased in the last five months, the level is still five percent lower than before the outbreak of the pandemic.
Consumption of goods, on the other hand, remains 12% higher than before the pandemic, after a 1.7% drop in August.
Norwegians’ foreign consumption increased 27.3 percent, but it is still roughly 80 percent lower than before the pandemic. Consumption of foreigners in Norway increased by almost 70 percent.
Norwegian exports fell 0.9 percent, while imports increased 2.3 percent.
– The rise in interest rates is nailed
Handelsbanken notes that today’s figures were somewhat stronger than expected, but should be interpreted with caution.
– Unusually good mackerel fishing, however, stopped, without this growth was less impressive, the brokerage writes in a comment.
Handelsbanken chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov adds that the most important thing is that the recovery continues and that unemployment has decreased.
– The interest rate hikes in December have materialized.
Norges Bank has announced a further jump in interest rate from 0.25 percentage points to 0.5 percent at its next main meeting in December if the economy develops as expected.