Friday, January 21

Presidential 2022. Has insecurity really increased under Macron’s mandate?

Less than three months before the presidential election, the right is stepping up their political campaign with an angle of attack: insecurity. The Republicans also made a series of tweets Monday evening to denounce the insecurity under Macron’s mandate. Denunciations supported by a leaflet from their candidate Valérie Pécresse, which will be distributed this weekend to publicize its security measures.

The campaign team puts forward several claims, which we have verified.

1 / France is the second European country out of 27 for the number of attacks?

Hard to say… At the level of the European Union, the latest figures date from 2018. There were then 583,000 attacks recorded by the police, or 6.2% less than in 2010, according to Eurostat figures. If a trend is increasing in France between 2010 and 2016, it is difficult to establish a reliable comparison.

“Comparisons between countries are distorted by differences between existing arrangements, registration practices and reporting rates. For example, some national figures include minor assaults, fatal assaults (manslaughter, murder, etc.), or even sexual assault (which is generally a separate category), while most only include acts qualified as assault. serious ”, explains the European statistics institute.

In the leaflet revealed on Tuesday, the candidate LR however advances a precise figure of assaults in France. “Every day, 750 French people are physically attacked! 32% increase in assault and battery between 2017 and 2021. ” It’s wrong. According to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, France recorded in 2017 223,000 victims of “deliberate assault and battery on people aged fifteen or over (CBV)”. In 2020 (latest figures available), this figure rose to 260,000 victims (around 712 victims per day): an increase of 16.59%, not 32%.

The rise in CBV remains significant, however, but is also explained by the free speech of victims of domestic violence, especially battered women. Because they are included in the count. “This significant increase is linked to the very strong increase in assault and battery occurring in an intrafamilial context in 2018 and 2019 while the other recorded assault and battery showed more moderate increases”, underlines the document. of the Ministry of the Interior (on page 7 of the PDF below).

2/100 violence per day against people holding public authority?

It’s true. According to the bill, tabled last April, “Tending to fight against the trivialization of threats and violence against mayors and persons holding public authority by strengthening the penalties incurred”, “36,043 acts of violence targeting our law enforcement officers were reported” in 2020 “Every day there are around 100 acts of violence against a person holding public authority, representing an increase of 21% in three years”, it is still written. Among this violence, 11,217 police officers and gendarmes were injured on the ground, or nearly 30 per day (+ 17% compared to 2017).

From January to August 2020, the Association of Mayors of France also counted the assault of 233 local elected officials, nearly 20% more than last year on the same date.

3 / The number of operational prison places has only increased by 1,500 since 2017?

This is wrong, but … Each month, a report from the Ministry of Justice sets out the state of prisons in France. According to the latter, published on December 1, 2021, France has 60,775 operational prison places for 69,992 inmates (1,592 mattresses on the floor). On May 1, 2017, month of the election of Emmanuel Macron, there were 58,548 for 69,679 inmates (1,755 mattresses on the floor).

In five years, the number of operational prison places has therefore not increased by 1,500 as claimed by The Republicans but by 2,227. This remains very little, especially since one of the candidate’s campaign promises Macron was to create 15,000 new prison places in five years. An objective which has since been rescheduled and is expected on the horizon … 2027, end of his potential second term. And in five years, we have gone from an overall prison density of 119 to 115%, still a long way from the objective of relieving French prisons.

4/45% of criminals sentenced to prison are not in prison six months after their conviction?

It’s wrong. The statistics are not sourced and we have found no trace anywhere. However, this is not the first time that Valérie Pécresse has denounced unfulfilled convictions. In August 2020, the president of the Ile-de-France region affirmed that “60,000 sentences” of prison are not carried out each year.

In fact, this is not correct. According to old figures from the Ministry of Justice dating from 2013, between 90,000 and 100,000 prison sentences are “not directly” carried out each year. First of all, because convicted persons can benefit from an arrangement of sentence, for example an electronic bracelet to avoid imprisonment. However, it is the sentence enforcement judge who decides on this adjustment of the sentence. The median time to serve the sentence is 3.7 months if the convicted person goes to prison, compared to 7.5 months if he or she benefits from an accommodation, according to the Ministry of Justice.

The six-month period is therefore irrelevant for determining whether a sentence has been served. Especially since “the average duration of the firm part of the prison sentences sanctioning offenses is set at 9.1 months in 2020”, again underlines the Chancellery. Short sentences, easily adaptable to avoid overloading prisons. In 2020, 36.7% of those convicted and imprisoned were also serving sentences of less than one year.

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