Wednesday, October 27

The Seven Possible Paths of the Støre Government to the Majority


When SV withdrew, the Støre government lost a majority in the Storting. But Jonas Gahr Støre and Trygve Slagsvold Vedum can secure support in many ways in the future.

In the future, the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party will have to go to parties in the Storting to guarantee a majority in individual cases. SV is one of the preferred parts in these cases, but there are other possibilities.

To have a majority in the Storting, a government must have at least 85 seats. After SV’s exit from the government polls on Wednesday, the Labor Party and the Center Party are left with just 76.

This means that they must go out and free the other parties in all matters that arise. Negotiations small and large will be the new daily life of the minority government.

– A minority government will make politics more confusing in the future, says Signe Bock Segaard. She is a researcher at the Department of Social Research.

Theoretically, the new government can secure a majority through the following seven different constellations:

Faithful Triangle: Ap-Sp + SV

Although SV left the Hurdal polls on Wednesday, it is precisely a majority with SV that the new government will seek first. The three parties have a total of 89 seats.

At least when it comes to budgets. Both Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre and Social Democratic leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum have been clear about this.

– SV is our partner in the Storting. This is the party to go to when it comes to budget, Støre said Wednesday.

SV leader Audun Lysbakken also says he hopes the new government will go to them first to find the majority. This despite the fact that SV does not want any formal link, such as a cooperation agreement, with the new government.

All three parties agree on several things: dissolve Viken County, reverse changes to the work environment law, abolish the free choice of treatment scheme, eliminate the requirement of four in mathematics to enter teacher training, reverse taxi reform and rail reform, toughen private school law, and refrain from exposing child welfare institutions. All parties are also in favor of less goal-oriented management in the public sector and will implement the so-called trust reform.

– It is in the budget negotiations that SV now has the opportunity to do a horse trade. That is, they may try to fulfill your wishes, which they may have struggled to achieve in polls, Segaard says.

However, Støre and Vedum are much less clear about who they will turn to for support in the many cases where they find themselves on a collision course with SV.

– I have not commented on individual cases. I don’t want to conclude on how we will put them through at the Storting, Støre told a news conference on Thursday.

Next Post: Civil Giant Slalom

Such statements mean that the other left parties warn that a Labor-SP government will turn into a “slalom government”.

It is not about winter sports, but about the opportunity for a minority government to seek a majority from both the left and the right.

– We take one thing at a time. We haven’t prepared for alpine skiing, cross-country skiing or super-G, Jonas Gahr Støre joked at a press conference on Thursday.

If you look to the right, the Støre government has two alternatives. They will be able to form a majority with both the Conservatives alone and the FRP alone.

The reason the slalom questions against the two party leaders is that in some areas they agree more with the right than with SV. This summer, the PS leader in Aftenposten indicated that defense, immigration and oil policy are political areas where it may be relevant to find alongside the right.

In the past two days, Vedum has repeatedly praised the Norwegian tradition of finding broad cross-party agreements.

– We think it is stabilizing and it is good. Fortunately, we are not like in other countries, where comprehensive solutions are not sought, he said when asked by Aftenposten on Wednesday.

Segaard believes there is a high probability that examples of cooperation will be seen across the political divide, despite Støre’s promises to look to the left.

Four other complexes: small, red and green

If it collides with the three solutions mentioned, the Støre government can still achieve a majority in four other ways.

1) They can form a majority together with Red and MDG.

In total, these four parties have 87 seats. However, this is considered unlikely.

It’s hard to imagine the Støre government getting along with these two parties without SV being involved as well. And then they will be redundant. The polls were broken because SV did not believe that the Labor Party and the People’s Socialist Party gave enough to the climate and redistribution. So the government is unlikely to find itself alongside two parties that are even greener and redder.

2) Ap-Sp can also form a similar majority together with Venstre and KrF.

– As it stands now, it is unlikely that the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party will cooperate with these two parties. Støre wants to look to the left. At the same time, we know that Sp and KrF agree on some issues, says Seegard.

Segaard says there is the possibility that the Liberal Party will make its mark on the climate by coinciding with the left in some cases.

– Then the government will have to deal with pressures from the left and the right, for example in matters of climate and oil, he says.

He also notes that there is more uncertainty about what is happening at KrF now, with a new leader. A few years ago, joining a government with the Labor Party was a real alternative for the party.

3) and 4) The Patient Focus single party can also help the government get the necessary majority.

Together with the Red Party or the Liberal Party, Representative Irene Ojala will be able to get Støre the nine votes needed for a majority.

The price of this collaboration is well known: A new hospital for Alta, which is the sole theme of the party.

At a press conference on Thursday, the SP leader, Vedum, was asked whether it might be relevant to get the support of, for example, the Red and Patient Focus.

– The topics are the most important. If other parties want to support our proposals, of course we are open to it, he replied.


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