Next Monday, November 29, the components of the presidential majority will meet under a single banner for the 2022 election. A “common house” called “Together citizens!” will thus see the light of day with the stated objective of wearing Emmanuel Macron towards a second term.
It will bring together La République en Marche (LREM), François Bayrou’s Modem, Agir (chaired by the Minister in charge of Foreign Trade, Franck Riester), Horizons (the new party of Édouard Philippe), Territories of Progress (left wing of the majority) and In common (environmental wing around Barbara Pompili).
Dependent on its alliances
This association is not a merger, despite François Bayrou’s desire to create a “great democratic party”. An arbitration which made it possible to rally Édouard Philippe, eager to keep his independence. The parties will therefore continue to exist independently and the “common house” will be overseen by a collegial management of four: François Bayrou and Édouard Philippe, but also Richard Ferrand and Jean Castex.
This alliance underlines the fact that Emmanuel Macron no longer thinks he can rely solely on the LREM brand to win a second time. Its rapprochement with the Modem for greater cooperation would also still be in the pipeline.
Arrived with great pomp at the head of the country, LREM has no longer governed alone in the National Assembly since May 19, 2020. The defection of some deputies from the left wing of the group lost the absolute majority (289 seats out of 577 ) to Emmanuel Macron’s party. The group has lost 46 parliamentarians at the Palais Bourbon since the start of the quinquennium. It is therefore on its various allies that the government and LREM rely to legislate as it pleases, such as the Modem (57 deputies) or Agir ensemble (22 deputies).
The “common house” also aims to cooperate for the investitures for the legislative elections to present a single candidate per constituency. LREM would certainly continue to exist but would therefore be forced to make room for its allies.
Disillusionment in the interim elections
Despite its some 425,000 claimed members, LREM failed to gain a foothold locally during the interim elections. On the contrary, the majority have chained setbacks. LREM was not able to take control of one of the ten largest cities in France in the municipal elections of June 2020. Sometimes, despite surprising alliances with the right, as in Strasbourg or Lyon.
“It will undoubtedly be necessary to make evolve LREM which is a movement and not a party, anticipated an elected of the majority near the Parisian. This may be where the shoe pinches. “
In the departmental and regional elections last June, LREM also kept a low profile, unable to win, except in Guadeloupe. The party found itself in fourth or even fifth places. “These results are a disappointment for the presidential majority”, recognized Stanislas Guérini, the general delegate of the party. La République en Marche also presented candidates in its own name in only 10% of the cantons for the departmental elections (185 cantons out of 2028).
The fact remains that, despite these delicate electoral deadlines for his party, Emmanuel Macron is favorite in the polls. If he is not yet officially a candidate, the Head of State is credited with 25% of the votes in the opinion polls.